Fed Poised for 25bps Cut on Oct 29
The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its second rate cut of the year on October 29, with a 25 basis point reduction widely expected by analysts, traders, and policymakers. This move will lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking a significant shift in the Fed’s stance after a prolonged tightening cycle.
Why the Cut Matters
The Fed’s decision comes amid slowing inflation, softening labor data, and rising global uncertainty. With the U.S. economy showing signs of cooling, the central bank is pivoting toward a more accommodative stance—aiming to support growth without reigniting inflation.
Market confidence is high:
• CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.7% probability of a 25 bps cut
• JP Morgan analysts place the odds at 99%
• Polymarket reflects a 96% consensus among traders
What’s Next: December 10, 2025
The Fed’s final meeting of the year is scheduled for December 10, and current forecasts suggest another 25 basis point cut, bringing the rate down to 3.50%–3.75%. This would complete the Fed’s two-cut roadmap for 2025, aligning with its updated dot plot and forward guidance.
Gold’s Reaction: Bullish Setup
Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and reduce bond yields—both bullish signals for gold. Traders and investors are already positioning for upside:
• Gold futures have edged higher in anticipation
• Technical setups show breakout potential above key resistance zones
• Rate-sensitive dashboards are triggering bullish alerts as probabilities climb